I have been using the Japanese Candle Stick Charts in trading the spot foreign currency market since I came across Steve Nison's book "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" second edition sometime in early 1990's. I was assigned in Singapore then. My "batting average" and profitability did improve significantly when I incorporated the newly acquired knowledge from this book into my daily trading regimen. When Nison's second book ("Beyond Candlesticks") came out, I was already assigned to our San Francisco office. By that time, I have proclaimed myself as a Nison follower and a Japanese Candlestick chart fanatic. (I wouldn't trade without taking a closer look at candlestick charts first!) The second book was actually a big let down to me. I was expecting to read trading techniques using the candlesticks since the first book dealt mainly on the discussions about what the candlestick is. Nison wanted to come out with a clear cut guideline on how to use Japanese Candle Stick Charting Techniques in trading the various financial markets in the second book, unfortunately much of his discussions was made with the benefit of "hindsight". His dissertations were based on past price movements which were already known to him at the time of the book's writing. So, l resigned myself to doing my own experimentation and interpretations based on real live market feeds with a focus on the forex market with which I was passionately involved with. At about this time, Nison was, I believed, doing the same thing although much of his work was focused on the stock market. (Many of his website contents and cd's came out 8-10 years after his first book was published.)

Before anyone accuses me of being a charlatan, I wish to clarify that I am not claiming to be an expert on the use of the Japanese Candle Stick Charting Technique here. My intention for this blog post is to share with you my experiences and difficulties in using this remarkable charting technique which has now become a necessary fixture in every trader's desktop.

For backgrounders, let me brief you on what the Japanese Candlestick Chart is.

Candlestick charts are said to have been developed in the 18th century by legendary Japanese rice trader Homma Munehisa. The charts gave Homma and others an overview of open, high, low, and close market prices over a certain period. This style of charting is very popular due to the level of ease in reading and understanding the graphs. Since the 17th century, there has been a lot of effort to relate chart patterns to the likely future behavior of a market. This method of charting prices proved to be particularly interesting, due to the ability to display five data points instead of one. The Japanese rice traders also found that the resulting charts would provide a fairly reliable tool to predict future demand.

The method was picked up by Charles Dow around 1900 although Dow's version (bar charts) was way different from Nison's (candle stick charts).

(Charles Henry Dow was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser. Dow also founded The Wall Street Journal, which became one of the most respected financial publications in the world. He also invented the famous Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of his research into market movements. Furthermore he developed a series of principles for understanding and analyzing market behavior which later became known as Dow theory, the groundwork for technical analysis.)

Steve Nison, on the other hand is regarded as the “Father of Japanese Candlesticks.” Based on his intense study of original manuscripts on Japanese Candlestick charts which were exclusively translated for him, Nison was literally the author of the first books ever written and published about the subject.

I have been trading currencies long before Nison's first book came out. I was properly schooled in the Western methods of technical analysis (to my dismay and confusion). So, when I came across Nison's book, I was an instant convert, and with good reason.

One of the many mistakes I made as a start up trader at that time was to over indulge myself with using the various Western methods of technical analysis like Stochastics, MACD, Momentum Index, Elliot Wave Theory, etc. My over-indulgence with these technical tools made me mistakenly believe that the markets must move according to the technical models I have so painstakingly pieced together. My technical savvy made me forget the fact that markets are moved by real people, traders who buy or sell because of personal conviction or belief in a particular fundamental. My over indulgence with my better than average technical analysis skills made me forget that the basic objective of these technical tools I so fondly acquired through these years is to approximate the underlying sentiment of the market so as to come up with a calculated future market direction. I totally lost sight of the basic fact about charts and what they are supposed to provide us - the real underlying sentiment of the market, its hesitation, its strength! I totally ignored the basic thing about charts - that every chart is suppose to tell us a story, the story of the greater majority of traders trading at that particular time, whether they are buying or selling or staying on the sidelines; or whether they are buying/selling with conviction or on mere speculation!

Nison's Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique made me remember and made me go back to basics! The vivid graphical presentation of the underlying market sentiment by Japanese Candlestick charts is so simple and so remarkably clear that you are able to discern immediately market strengths and weaknesses. It so vividly reveals the over-all emotion the market has at any given time. To me, it serves as an effective radar that measures, detects, and translate market movements no matter how big or small they may be. It is so super sensitive that it is able to graphically illustrate (in the form of varying candlestick formations) the real story behind every market movement. It is so damn effective that I became an instant convert and a fanatic user of it. I really can never trade any market without first taking a close look at a Japanese Candlestick chart and read the story it wants to tell me.

The mystery of Japanese Candlestick Charts is in its simplicity. The myth lies in its usage.

(Next: Understanding Japanese Candlestick charts.)

• 1. Thou must first know thy self and thy market well.

Trading stocks, currencies gold, or commodity futures, or any other securities(fast moving markets) via the internet can be terribly taxing! Before you decide to plunge into it you must know offhand if you are ready to lose a lot of good night sleep for just monitoring the markets; or if you have the stomach to take frequent roller coaster rides during peak market activities (like watching your investment tremendously grow within seconds just to see it melt down in the next)! You must know first if you have the discipline to be able to maintain your cool during wild and wide price swings and still be able to call the shots objectively according to your pre-determined trading objectives. This means you should not to let fear overshadow you when the market moves against your position, nor allow greed to take the better of you when the market is in your favor. Remember always that markets are frequently unpredictable and that you must learn to adapt to its peculiarities fast otherwise it will eat you up alive.

• 2. Thou must deal only with registered brokers.

Make sure the broker is registered! If the broker is based in the U.S., contact the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and also check with your state securities regulator as well. You can research the investment online using the SEC's EDGAR database at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml. To contact your state regulator call the North American Securities Administrator's Association (NASAA) at (202) 737-0900 or online at http://www.nasaa.org/home/index.cfm. You may also contact the Commodity Futures Trading Association (CFTC) at http://www.cftc.gov/ and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) at http://www.finra.org/index.htm. The rule of the thumb you must use here is “avoid the unregistered and junk the brokers with recorded complaints.”

For non-US based brokers, you must demand verifiable documentations from the broker regarding their affiliations and representations. Some online brokers are merely introducing brokers (IB), meaning they act as marketing representatives for a bigger broker, in which case you must demand to see the IB contracts and investigate the affiliation of the principal broker. Other brokers “white label” for their principals. Their websites may appear and have the looks of a big broker when in fact they are mere affiliates of other brokers. Don’t deal with white labelers if they don’t publish their principals. White labelers make money through an additional spread of a pip or two built in into their price quotes. While I don’t have anything against white labelers who are affiliated with established brokers of good standings, I would advise you to avoid them unless they have incorporated more add-on features or services other than those offered by their principals to justify the additional cost to you.

Big Daddy's suggestion that you deal only with registered brokers is not being biased against overseas brokers. It's just that online investors must always be provided with a forum or a venue to file any claims they may have against their online brokers in the future. And at this point in time,only U.S. based brokers can provide us with this safety net.

• 3. Thou shall shall not invest money you can not afford to lose!

One of the major pre-placement considerations an investor must make is determining the amount of capital he will be using. There is not set rule for this. In fact, everything is left to the discretion of the investor. However, one must understand that every investment involves a certain amount of risk. Placing an investment (online or otherwise) is in reality a form of risk-taking with the hope that the placement will generate a certain amount of profit after a while. However, the presence of the entailing risks also tells us that there is a possibility of losses. In fact, in fast moving markets the likelihood of losing all of your investment is all too real. This is the very reason why you must not invest more than your 'risk capital'. Risk capital is that part of your liquid assets or your wealth which if lost will not affect your lifestyle or your family's way of life. Never ever invest money meant for your your family's daily subsistence. Doing so will make an emotional wreck out of you. You will turn out to be an emotional trader; setting aside fundamentals; trading out of fear of losing the money on which you and your family depends on; holding on too long to losing positions hoping the market will finally turn into his favor. Once you become emotional trader you start trading on false hopes which ultimately lead you to disaster and the total loss of your investment.

• 4. Thou shall not use unprotected computers!

Never use computers, whether at an airport, library or an office when accessing your financial accounts or records. Make sure you only enter confidential information on websites with the "locked padlock" icon in the browser frames (must have https at the beginning of the web address) Avoid using public wi-fi facilities in accessing your account or executing your online trades. Hackers are everywhere nowadays. It is advisable to do your online transactions only at the comforts and confidentiality of your abode. Turn off and unplug the computer you are using for trading when you are not on trade.

• 5. Thou shall not trade without a plan!

Never attempt to trade without a trading plan. A good money manager does not buy or sell out of whims and intuitions. No matter how long his experiences have been in trading a particular market, the successful investor/trader always prepare a plan before taking a plunge, so to speak. His every action stems from a careful study of a particular security, commodity, or currency contract. He always has a sound fundamental basis (underlying economic data) and/or a reliable technical view for the following trading decision parameters:

o the choice of item/market to trade, (which security, commodity, or currency)
o the specific position to take (whether to buy or to sell)
o the specific price range on which the position will be executed (entry point)
o the targeted price objective or exit point on which the trade must be closed

All these trading decision parameters must be clearly defined and set before executing any trade. Never attempt to trade fast moving markets online in the same manner and with the same do or die spirit as in p lacing bets on online gambling sites. Every trading decision must be based on a trading plan and every trading plan must be followed to the letter.

• 6. Thou shall not execute orders without trading stops!

Every trading plan must incorporate trading stops which shall act as a safety nets to limit your losses in case the market moves unfavorably against your established positions. There is no set or fast rule for creating your stops. However, in establishing your initial position you need to set your initial stop with a wider range - taking into account the highs and lows of the trading range established for the day, the proximity of your entry price to historical turn points (chart supports and resistance levels), and your tolerance level as dictated by your initial equity. (Make it a point that your initial stop must not be beyond the price level where it will eat up more than 20% of your equity). When the market starts to move in your favor, adjust your initial stop turning it into a trailing stop in the direction of the price movement. You must adjust your trailing stops tighter and tighter (closer to the spot price) as prices approach historical turn points or significant technical price levels (such as those established using the Fibonacci theory).
Stops are vital to your becoming a disciplined investor. They help you decide without hesitation when to cut a losing or winning trade. They prevent you from becoming an emotional trader and a perpetual loser. But most important of all,trading stops limit your actual loses. I have seen people lose all their investments in one single session because they adamantly held on to losing positions in the hope that the price will soon make a turn-around. I have also seen people who have reached their profit objectives but out of greed, held on to their positions. And when the market whipsawed they ended up losing everything.

• 7. THOU SHALL NOT TRADE ON MARGINS BEYOND 250:1 RATIO.

One of the main attractions of trading on line is the fact that most brokerage houses offer trading opportunities on margin basis (where you are allowed to put up only a fraction of the cost of the contracts you are buying or selling). This ratio may vary from broker to broker. While this is an advantage to the investors since it allows them to maximize the returns on their investments, it can also work against them because high margin ratios can also wipe out their equity fast in very volatile markets. For the more experienced traders who are incorporating strict money management strategies into their trading plans, the margin ratio may be a non-issue. However, for the ‘newbies’, trading with a lower margin ratio (between 50:1 and 250:1 ratio) will keep them in on volatile markets and allow them ample time to react to rapid price changes in the market place. At the same time, the lower margin ratios allow investors to avoid margin calls because it provides them elbow room to make the necessary adjustments on their positions (like temporarily freezing their positions by executing an opposite trade) thus temporarily avoiding actualizing losses. Investors must remember that brokers are not required to issue margin calls when an account falls below the required maintenance margins. They can just go ahead and cut your positions at a loss. Investors need to read, remember, and understand the fine lines in the brokers’ agreement regarding margins and margin calls.

• 8. THOU MUST ‘DEMO’ TRADE FIRST BEFORE ACTUAL TRADING.

Most online brokers offer demo trading on their sites which allows you to open demo accounts and trade live markets using only virtual money. This is a good chance for you to hone up your trading skills in real live market situations without risking your own money. You may do demo trades for as long as necessary (although some online brokers allow you only a maximum of 30 days to use their platform). Never open a real account unless you already feel comfortable with yourself, your trading plan, the broker’s trading platform, and the volatility of the market you are trading. If you are not yet satisfied with the outcome of your initial demo account, then go ahead and request for an extension of the demo account or, better still, open other demo accounts with other online brokers. Do not forget that trading volatile markets requires a large amount of self-restraint and discipline so never rush to a decision at all times.

• 9. THOU MUST KEEP YOURSELF WELL INFORMED AT ALL TIMES.

You must update yourself with everything that is going on in the financial marketplace. The internet has plenty of sources for real-time financial news updates, commentaries, and forecasts and projections. You must find time to go through the more important items which are relevant to the market you are trading. Do not look only or limit your search to information favoring your current position in the market. You must also be sensitive to contrary news, opinions, and forecasts. Use favorable factual data and information as your basis for initiating your trades. On the other hand, use any contradicting information, opinion or forecast as your basis for setting your trading stops (whether they should be tighter or wider). Subscribe to newsletters from as many online brokers as are available. Most important of all, you must sharpen your skills at digesting all of the available information you happen to go through and be able to create an informed and calculated trading decision from the same as fast as the need arises.

• 10. THOU MUST ALWAYS INSURE AN UNINTERUPTED COMMUNICATIONS WITH YOUR BROKER.

Online investments depend a lot on your uninterrupted internet connections with your broker. Your trading could be adversely affected if for example your internet connection is down at the time the market makes a major move. You can lose a big opportunity to cash in on that market movement, or lose an opportunity to cut your loss if you happen to be on the other side of that market movement. There may also be instances where even the broker’s system breaks down due to heavy traffic, or computer glitches, or other natural calamities which may prevent orders from being filled. The online investors must be prepared for such contingencies. They must be familiar with the broker’s alternative options in case they cannot access their accounts online. And this should include automated telephone trading, fax orders, and direct phone dealing arrangements. All these alternative trading options must be arranged with your brokers prior to instituting your initial trades.

The SEC had been ineffective in going after Performance Foreign Exchange Corporation which has remained operational up to now despite the numerous complaints filed against the company by many of its disgruntled investors, and inspite of successive raids made by the National Bureau of Investigation (the local counterpart of the US’ FBI) into their offices. PFEC even challenged the cease and desist order issued by SEC against it all the way up to the Supreme Court and won.

How can this happen? How can the SEC be rendered useless by a forex boiler room operator?

In my opinion, SEC’s helplessness in the issue of PFEC was its own making.

• First, it failed to keep up with the many changes happening in the financial markets specifically in the foreign exchange markets towards the turn of the century. It failed to notice that with the advent of advanced computer technology, a parallel market to the established interbank foreign currency trading network was fast evolving.
• Second, the Philippine’s SEC was playing to the hilt its assumed role of being a copy cat of its US counterparts. Online foreign currency trading in the US is considered as commodity futures trading and falls under the jurisdiction and oversight functions of CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), an independent entity established through an act of the US Congress to regulate commodity futures trading in that country. Why under the CFTC? Well, in the US there are commodity exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which deals on financial instruments such as currency futures. Spot currency trading then used to refer to and was limited to the buying and selling of the spot month (current month) currency contracts in these exchanges. Control and oversight functions for spot foreign currency trading were therefore under the jurisdiction of CFTC. However, US authorities were also quick enough to notice the advent of and the proliferation of online, off exchange, spot currency currency trading done electronically through banks with networks that spans every corner of the globe. And so the US congress,on the recommendation of CFTC passed “The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (CFMA) which made clear that the CFTC has jurisdiction and authority to investigate and take legal action to close down a wide assortment of unregulated firms offering or selling foreign currency futures and options contracts to the general public. ( Please refer to my earlier blog entitled Foreign Currency Trading Update, August 15, 2008.)

The Philippines SEC was lifting off and adopting policies and opinions from its US counterparts without studying its own local scenario falling into the age old colonial mentality of embracing the belief that “whatever it is that holds true in the US must hold true also in the Philippines. And so when SEC went up against PFEC in the courts of law, it was rebuffed by the highest court in the land (the Supreme Court) because it tried to pin down PFEC with the charge that it was illegally engaging in commodity futures transaction. (See my blog on this HANGING BY A THREAD (PART2 ) - (SEC BLUNDERED AND PFEC GOES SCOT FREE)•August 13, 2008 and HANGING BY A THREAD (PART1 ) - (OR HOW PFEC MANAGE TO REMAIN AFLOAT)•August 12, 200

The funny thing is from the advent of commodity futures trading in the Philippines in 1985 to its closure in 1997 which was followed by the influx of forex boiler room operators, the SEC was swamped with mounting complaints from forex investors. And take note, the revised Securities Regulatory Act of the Philippines was enacted in the year 2000, the SEC could have recommended revisions to the securities code as early as then but they didn’t.

Now, two years after the PIPC scam, it has not made any move at all to recommend revisions in the code which must incorporate clarificatory provisions that will define SEC’s jurisdiction and oversight functions over unregulated firms dealing with the buying and selling of spot currency contracts to include firms offering subsidiary forex services such as consultancy services, research, and forex trading platforms.

The US made its move in the year 2000 to regulate on line, off exchange spot currency trading. What has the Philipines’ SEC done?

(A DETAILED ACCOUNT OF HOW THE MANILA INTERNATIONAL FUTURES EXCHANGE DUPED THE INVESTING PUBLIC FOR MORE THAN A DECADE)

You must have read or heard of a news story somewhere about a young, innocent girl being conned by a group of men into going with them to party all night with sweet promises of gifts and money. The innocent girl, enticed by their promises, went with them - her penchant for the promised rewards overshadowing her fear for her own safety. She ended up being locked up in a house for a long time and gang-raped over and over and over again!

This is the best way I can vividly picture to you the scam operations perpetrated by the defunct Manila International Futures Exchange from its inception in 1985 until it was finally issued a cease and desist order by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1997.

The MIFE was established and headed by a Hong Kong-based British National who came to the Philippines touting the credentials of having headed the Hong Kong Commodity Futures Exchange sometime ago in the past. The Philippine authorities, mesmerized by the seemingly impeccable record of the foreigner, forgot all about conducting due diligence. They fell into the trap and approved the creation of a commodity futures exchange in 1985. The authorities were made to believe that the exchange will benefit Philippine farmers who are producers of copra, coffee, sugar, and soybeans, the four commodities to be traded in the new exchange. And so, the “rape” began!

Very few people knew the following details:

* That the Briton was actually a henchman of a group of Chinese businessmen-brokers who pulled a similar scam at the Hong Kong Futures Exchange (the Carrian Caper) in the past.
* That all the member brokers of MIFE were all inter-linked with each other and their operations were all funded by the same Chinese group
* That the Manila International Futures Clearing House which was supposed to be an independent entity in charge of clearing and auditing exchange transactions was actually owned by the same group and that the Filipino directors of both the exchange and the clearing house were mere dummies who never knew what was really going on (They were there just for the fee to put some semblance of credibility to the operations of both the exchange and the clearing house.
* That the SEC personnel tasked to monitor the daily activities in the trading floor were also under the payroll of the exchange, and for more than ten years they were there every single day but never really knew what their tasks were much less what they were supposed to monitor.
* That the volume transactions being reported by the exchange were all scam transactions and the supposedly actual trading being done daily by Filipino floor traders were actually being orchestrated by the Chinese dealers of each member broker shooting out instructions to their floor traders by phone all through out the trading sessions.
* That these Chinese dealers maintained phone hot lines connected to each other so they can manipulate the prices in all the four daily trading sessions of the exchange. They dictate how far the price must go up or down for each trading session.

What I have enumerated above are not mere allegations but first hand knowledge based on the personal contacts I had while working as an employee of some of the key players in this scam. For lack of space, I shall end my blog at this point with a promise that I shall share with you the details, and I mean the real details, on how this scam was pulled through. These series of revelations are actually meant to provide you with a better understanding of how forex scam operators conduct their business because spot foreign currency trading in the Philippines was an offshoot of the closure of MIFE.