What a nasty situation U.S. congressmen are finding themselves in courtesy of the $700M financial bail-out plan. The U.S. senate has now passed on the ball to the U.S. Congress after approving a sweetened version of EESA to force another showdown at the lower house. Lobbying is being done around the clock to insure the passage of the bill. Concessions from both parties are being offered and accepted without hesitation or second thoughts. And why not, everyone was a given a terrifying preview of what might happen again if approval of the modified Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 is once more derailed. The 778 points Dow dive last Monday after Congress failed to pass the bill, sent a terrifying reminder to everyone concerned. The spill off effect in other bourses worldwide was just as unnerving.

A lot of finger pointing ensued in the aftermath of the failed passage of the bill. Had the congressmen simply done their jobs clean without the unnecessary political grand standing and uncalled for fire brand speeches aimed at gaining political advantage over the issue, the Dow would not have dropped that much. The current scenario is a chilling reminder of the stock market crash of 1929. Stocks started to nose dive on October 24, 1929 - Black Thursday. Leading Wall Street Bankers tried to remedy the situation by pooling their resources together. Their efforts failed resulting into the now infamous Black Tuesday Stock Market Crash of October 29, 1929. This pulled down the country into the era of the Great Depression.

We may really see a repeat of 1929 , and, what a friend and fellow blogger aptly termed as "The Collapse of The House of Card." The effect will be felt in all corners of the globe and will be long lasting. Recovery will be slow and painful.

The congress men who will once again shoot down this bill come Friday will be praised by the growing number of their discontented constituency. But, will they be willing to put in their hands the blame for not doing anything to prevent another Black Friday scenario in the U.S. I doubt it. On the other hand if they choose to support the bill and pass it, they may prevent a world wide financial crisis but they risk the chance of not being voted back into office by their disgruntled constituents.

DAMNED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON'T INDEED!

(BIG DADDY’S UNSOLICITED VIEW ON THE USD AND THE US ECONOMY)

The recent filing of bankruptcy by the giant Lehman Brothers followed by the massive bail out efforts of insurer AIG by the U.S. government created quite a stir in the global financial markets. Yet, the perceived widespread financial meltdown as a result of these two major incidents was seemingly prevented from happening by the concerted and immediate defensive actions of several major central banks. What the central banks actually did is yet to be reported by the media. Coming at the heels of the long delayed moves by the U.S. government to solve the “bubble burst” problems of the mortgage industry, these two incidents were indeed dampers to U.S. efforts to revive the sagging U.S. economy.

However, I personally do not credit the central banks for the prevention of widespread financial meltdown from happening. I believe the Lehman and AIG incidents have long been anticipated by the markets and considered by many as a delayed reaction to the housing industry woes. These are incidents they knew were going to happen sooner or later. And though the breaking news was shocking for a while, many analysts believe much of it has already been factored into the current price of the slumping dollar. Many, including myself, look at the current situation as an opportunity to buy into the dollar near term (4 -6 months). The short and minor rally by the USD after U.S. finally announced its moves to solve the mortgage industry problems points to the possibility that it is “bottom picking” time for the USD.

While many will be sidelined by the uncertainties of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections with good reason, I still believe the dollar (and the U.S. economy) is poised to rebound after taking a long beating attributed to the “bubble burst” scenario. For one thing, the U.S. domestic market cannot get worst than where it is right now. With the coming Christmas season, domestic consumption is bound to improve, so it is with employment data which traditionally makes an upturn at about the same time every year. Also, any further slump in the USD will be met by the traditional demand for the U.S. currency by multi nationals looking to repatriate profits to their respective headquarters.

• 1. Thou must first know thy self and thy market well.

Trading stocks, currencies gold, or commodity futures, or any other securities(fast moving markets) via the internet can be terribly taxing! Before you decide to plunge into it you must know offhand if you are ready to lose a lot of good night sleep for just monitoring the markets; or if you have the stomach to take frequent roller coaster rides during peak market activities (like watching your investment tremendously grow within seconds just to see it melt down in the next)! You must know first if you have the discipline to be able to maintain your cool during wild and wide price swings and still be able to call the shots objectively according to your pre-determined trading objectives. This means you should not to let fear overshadow you when the market moves against your position, nor allow greed to take the better of you when the market is in your favor. Remember always that markets are frequently unpredictable and that you must learn to adapt to its peculiarities fast otherwise it will eat you up alive.

• 2. Thou must deal only with registered brokers.

Make sure the broker is registered! If the broker is based in the U.S., contact the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and also check with your state securities regulator as well. You can research the investment online using the SEC's EDGAR database at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml. To contact your state regulator call the North American Securities Administrator's Association (NASAA) at (202) 737-0900 or online at http://www.nasaa.org/home/index.cfm. You may also contact the Commodity Futures Trading Association (CFTC) at http://www.cftc.gov/ and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) at http://www.finra.org/index.htm. The rule of the thumb you must use here is “avoid the unregistered and junk the brokers with recorded complaints.”

For non-US based brokers, you must demand verifiable documentations from the broker regarding their affiliations and representations. Some online brokers are merely introducing brokers (IB), meaning they act as marketing representatives for a bigger broker, in which case you must demand to see the IB contracts and investigate the affiliation of the principal broker. Other brokers “white label” for their principals. Their websites may appear and have the looks of a big broker when in fact they are mere affiliates of other brokers. Don’t deal with white labelers if they don’t publish their principals. White labelers make money through an additional spread of a pip or two built in into their price quotes. While I don’t have anything against white labelers who are affiliated with established brokers of good standings, I would advise you to avoid them unless they have incorporated more add-on features or services other than those offered by their principals to justify the additional cost to you.

Big Daddy's suggestion that you deal only with registered brokers is not being biased against overseas brokers. It's just that online investors must always be provided with a forum or a venue to file any claims they may have against their online brokers in the future. And at this point in time,only U.S. based brokers can provide us with this safety net.

• 3. Thou shall shall not invest money you can not afford to lose!

One of the major pre-placement considerations an investor must make is determining the amount of capital he will be using. There is not set rule for this. In fact, everything is left to the discretion of the investor. However, one must understand that every investment involves a certain amount of risk. Placing an investment (online or otherwise) is in reality a form of risk-taking with the hope that the placement will generate a certain amount of profit after a while. However, the presence of the entailing risks also tells us that there is a possibility of losses. In fact, in fast moving markets the likelihood of losing all of your investment is all too real. This is the very reason why you must not invest more than your 'risk capital'. Risk capital is that part of your liquid assets or your wealth which if lost will not affect your lifestyle or your family's way of life. Never ever invest money meant for your your family's daily subsistence. Doing so will make an emotional wreck out of you. You will turn out to be an emotional trader; setting aside fundamentals; trading out of fear of losing the money on which you and your family depends on; holding on too long to losing positions hoping the market will finally turn into his favor. Once you become emotional trader you start trading on false hopes which ultimately lead you to disaster and the total loss of your investment.

• 4. Thou shall not use unprotected computers!

Never use computers, whether at an airport, library or an office when accessing your financial accounts or records. Make sure you only enter confidential information on websites with the "locked padlock" icon in the browser frames (must have https at the beginning of the web address) Avoid using public wi-fi facilities in accessing your account or executing your online trades. Hackers are everywhere nowadays. It is advisable to do your online transactions only at the comforts and confidentiality of your abode. Turn off and unplug the computer you are using for trading when you are not on trade.

• 5. Thou shall not trade without a plan!

Never attempt to trade without a trading plan. A good money manager does not buy or sell out of whims and intuitions. No matter how long his experiences have been in trading a particular market, the successful investor/trader always prepare a plan before taking a plunge, so to speak. His every action stems from a careful study of a particular security, commodity, or currency contract. He always has a sound fundamental basis (underlying economic data) and/or a reliable technical view for the following trading decision parameters:

o the choice of item/market to trade, (which security, commodity, or currency)
o the specific position to take (whether to buy or to sell)
o the specific price range on which the position will be executed (entry point)
o the targeted price objective or exit point on which the trade must be closed

All these trading decision parameters must be clearly defined and set before executing any trade. Never attempt to trade fast moving markets online in the same manner and with the same do or die spirit as in p lacing bets on online gambling sites. Every trading decision must be based on a trading plan and every trading plan must be followed to the letter.

• 6. Thou shall not execute orders without trading stops!

Every trading plan must incorporate trading stops which shall act as a safety nets to limit your losses in case the market moves unfavorably against your established positions. There is no set or fast rule for creating your stops. However, in establishing your initial position you need to set your initial stop with a wider range - taking into account the highs and lows of the trading range established for the day, the proximity of your entry price to historical turn points (chart supports and resistance levels), and your tolerance level as dictated by your initial equity. (Make it a point that your initial stop must not be beyond the price level where it will eat up more than 20% of your equity). When the market starts to move in your favor, adjust your initial stop turning it into a trailing stop in the direction of the price movement. You must adjust your trailing stops tighter and tighter (closer to the spot price) as prices approach historical turn points or significant technical price levels (such as those established using the Fibonacci theory).
Stops are vital to your becoming a disciplined investor. They help you decide without hesitation when to cut a losing or winning trade. They prevent you from becoming an emotional trader and a perpetual loser. But most important of all,trading stops limit your actual loses. I have seen people lose all their investments in one single session because they adamantly held on to losing positions in the hope that the price will soon make a turn-around. I have also seen people who have reached their profit objectives but out of greed, held on to their positions. And when the market whipsawed they ended up losing everything.

• 7. THOU SHALL NOT TRADE ON MARGINS BEYOND 250:1 RATIO.

One of the main attractions of trading on line is the fact that most brokerage houses offer trading opportunities on margin basis (where you are allowed to put up only a fraction of the cost of the contracts you are buying or selling). This ratio may vary from broker to broker. While this is an advantage to the investors since it allows them to maximize the returns on their investments, it can also work against them because high margin ratios can also wipe out their equity fast in very volatile markets. For the more experienced traders who are incorporating strict money management strategies into their trading plans, the margin ratio may be a non-issue. However, for the ‘newbies’, trading with a lower margin ratio (between 50:1 and 250:1 ratio) will keep them in on volatile markets and allow them ample time to react to rapid price changes in the market place. At the same time, the lower margin ratios allow investors to avoid margin calls because it provides them elbow room to make the necessary adjustments on their positions (like temporarily freezing their positions by executing an opposite trade) thus temporarily avoiding actualizing losses. Investors must remember that brokers are not required to issue margin calls when an account falls below the required maintenance margins. They can just go ahead and cut your positions at a loss. Investors need to read, remember, and understand the fine lines in the brokers’ agreement regarding margins and margin calls.

• 8. THOU MUST ‘DEMO’ TRADE FIRST BEFORE ACTUAL TRADING.

Most online brokers offer demo trading on their sites which allows you to open demo accounts and trade live markets using only virtual money. This is a good chance for you to hone up your trading skills in real live market situations without risking your own money. You may do demo trades for as long as necessary (although some online brokers allow you only a maximum of 30 days to use their platform). Never open a real account unless you already feel comfortable with yourself, your trading plan, the broker’s trading platform, and the volatility of the market you are trading. If you are not yet satisfied with the outcome of your initial demo account, then go ahead and request for an extension of the demo account or, better still, open other demo accounts with other online brokers. Do not forget that trading volatile markets requires a large amount of self-restraint and discipline so never rush to a decision at all times.

• 9. THOU MUST KEEP YOURSELF WELL INFORMED AT ALL TIMES.

You must update yourself with everything that is going on in the financial marketplace. The internet has plenty of sources for real-time financial news updates, commentaries, and forecasts and projections. You must find time to go through the more important items which are relevant to the market you are trading. Do not look only or limit your search to information favoring your current position in the market. You must also be sensitive to contrary news, opinions, and forecasts. Use favorable factual data and information as your basis for initiating your trades. On the other hand, use any contradicting information, opinion or forecast as your basis for setting your trading stops (whether they should be tighter or wider). Subscribe to newsletters from as many online brokers as are available. Most important of all, you must sharpen your skills at digesting all of the available information you happen to go through and be able to create an informed and calculated trading decision from the same as fast as the need arises.

• 10. THOU MUST ALWAYS INSURE AN UNINTERUPTED COMMUNICATIONS WITH YOUR BROKER.

Online investments depend a lot on your uninterrupted internet connections with your broker. Your trading could be adversely affected if for example your internet connection is down at the time the market makes a major move. You can lose a big opportunity to cash in on that market movement, or lose an opportunity to cut your loss if you happen to be on the other side of that market movement. There may also be instances where even the broker’s system breaks down due to heavy traffic, or computer glitches, or other natural calamities which may prevent orders from being filled. The online investors must be prepared for such contingencies. They must be familiar with the broker’s alternative options in case they cannot access their accounts online. And this should include automated telephone trading, fax orders, and direct phone dealing arrangements. All these alternative trading options must be arranged with your brokers prior to instituting your initial trades.

"[Private] I have read your post and I wanted to write a brief comment but your template doesn't have a clickable link for the comment form. Anyway, I just wanted to say that I agree with your views on how to spot fake online FX brokers. I'm still baffled though why some previous victims of other scams keep on falling for the same trap (I have studied the chatroom dialogues at PinoyMoneyTalk and other Pinoy Forums). Why don't they seem to learn their lessons? Is it plain greed or plain stupidity? I cannot seem to figure out anything in between."

Posted on my message board in one of the social networks I am affiliated with was this note. The sender is a financial professional who also blogs about the many investment scams in the Philippines particularly the most recent PIPC-Michael Liew Forex Scam which is the subject of my continuing blog-expose.

"Why don't they (referring to Filipino investors) seem to learn their lessons? Is it plain greed or plain stupidity? "


Before I give my "two-cents worth" of opinion on this, let us approach his query from the opposite side and re-hash the questions to try to get a clearer picture of the situation.

How were these scammers able to do the same scam over and over again and in the same place at that? How were these con artists able to dupe more investors repeatedly when all that they did every time were to merely relocate to other offices and hire a new staff?

In my own opinion, these con artists, armed with years of experience in plying their trade all over the globe, knew their target market here by heart. For one, they knew that they can easily pass off as legitimate enterprises within the local business communities here since the regulatory authorities are drowned in a culture of corruption and bribery is a way of life. For another, they knew damn well that the market is simply big and is still growing! Despite years of their plundering activities, they knew they have not yet tapped the full potential of the already established "have money to invest sector"of the Philippine society - the old rich.

On top of this, they are quick to recognize that there is this emerging sector or the evolving "new rich" - successful newbies or business owners who are fast accumulating new found riches - and, there are also the OFW's whose years of hard work abroad are now showcased via sizable savings ready to be tapped for investments.

The marketing savvy of of these con artists are truly amazing. Yet, they have not changed their proven marketing approach at all through these years. The game plan is to undertake mass recruitment by way of offering easy-to-land high paying marketing jobs. They target people with connections to the well-heeled sector of the community to join their marketing staff. Business patronage is simply established via personal cognizance. A rich uncle or two, a well off neighbor, or long time business associate with excess money to invest, they all easily fall prey to a well prepared marketing presentation made by a relative,a trusted neighbor or a long time business associate. The norm of "throwing caution to the wind" when a new business is offered is easily forgotten. The personalized marketing approach swings the tide to their favor. And decision making is now influenced by local culture which dictates them not to offend the relative, the neighbor, or the business associate by turning down their offer. Often the personal assurances of the 'related' marketing staff become the sole factor for the decision to make the investments.

This marketing approach was so successful in the past because there was a dearth for high profile jobs available for the ever growing workforce and so these con artists were able to grow their businesses without a hitch. However, with the entry of and proliferation of high paying call center jobs in the country in the last three years, recruitment slowed down for these con artists. Their businesses suffered a slack. Obligations to pay up clients were rising faster than the generation of new investments. Finally, rather than to wait for the scam to blowup in their faces, they flew the coop bringing with them the whole caboodle of money invested with them.

Going back to my blogger friend's posted question, the victims of the latest PIPC-Michael Liew Forex scam as well as the investors in the Franc-Swiss capers (the latest forex investment scams to hit the Philippine scene) can not be deemed stupid. They were new victims of an old scam. My friend may argue this with me and say "if this is not plain stupidity then what is?" Well, I believe, if you have been duped before and allowed yourself to be duped again then that is plain stupidity. However, more than 90% of the PIPC and Franc-Swiss scam victims were not the same investors conned by the fake forex brokers in the last decade that they have been active in the country. They were mostly relatively new investors. I would moderate my call and term this as simple ignorance.

Again,my blogger friend may argue with me and say that this is plain stupidity since all the other scams that transpired in the last two decades have been well publicized in both print and broadcast media! Ahh, but here again is were the marketing savvy of the con artists shines out. They knew that there is a high chance that their targeted new victims never heard or read about forex scams in the country or if they did, there is a greater chance that they may not recall them at all. It is quite hard to recall a news item of no interest to you at all at that time, and which happened one or two years ago. These new victims may have been too busy building up their riches to even pay attention to news items of no direct bearing to them at that point. And, if there were those who could recall, these are easily overturned by personal assurances by the marketing staff who happen to be their relatives or close associates. A perfect staging ground for a scam indeed!

It is not plain stupidity that Filipino investors fell prey once more to investment scams. It is plain ignorance and total indifference to what is going on around them. To avoid recurrence of such incidents therefore, every one (investors, regulatory authorities and legislators alike) must be continually vigilant.

As for the greed, I should say investment decisions are often accompanied by a certain amount of greed.